Likud leaders debate polling data and rival spending ahead of Tuesday vote

Israeli voters cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, as internal disagreements within the Likud party intensify regarding the prime minister's path to power. One day before the election, party insiders remain split on whether Likud is positioned to win, with the division centering on the effectiveness of opposition turnout efforts.

Confident members of the party rely on internal forecasts from Shlomo Filber, who manages Likud's polling operations. A Likud source described the internal mood as polarized, noting, "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so." The source characterized the reliance on Filber's data as binary: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

Doubters within the party point to a surge in activity by nonprofits and organizations supporting the opposition camp. Party sources claim these groups are injecting large sums of money into operations that bypass standard party financing rules. This unregulated spending includes social media campaigns, physical signage, field events, and transportation for Arab voters. Efforts are also underway to facilitate flights for Israelis living abroad so they can return to vote.

One Likud source labeled this external funding drive "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing it provides a support network to parties opposed to Benjamin Netanyahu. The party also criticized the Central Elections Committee for focusing on campaign video limits while ignoring the nonprofit activity. However, sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or proof that the activities violated the law.

Likud is executing a large-scale ground operation on Election Day to monitor polling stations and prevent right-wing votes from leaking to smaller parties. Attempts to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, head of the People of Israel party, to withdraw from the race failed. Rabbi Eli Sadan later issued a statement backing Winter despite earlier talks. Likud is also courting supporters of the Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha ticket. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already dropped out after discussions that included potential legislation for a deputy minister post.

The election date of October 27 allows the current government to complete its full term. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided as they headed to the polls.