Israeli Election: Likud Splits on Tuesday's Vote

Israelis cast their ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in an election that allows the current government to complete its full term. Inside the ruling Likud party, officials are divided over the outcome. While some members express confidence in a victory, others worry about the impact of aggressive outreach by the opposition.

The party’s internal outlook hinges on data from Shlomo Filber, who manages Likud’s private polling. A party source described the internal sentiment as binary. "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other," the source said, referring to Filber's projections. Other members are less certain, citing the uncertainty in the final days of the campaign.

A primary source of anxiety within Likud is the activity of nonprofit organizations. Party sources claim these groups are directing substantial funds to mobilize voters opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This effort reportedly spans social media ads, street signs, and field events. Specific tactics include providing transportation for Arab voters and arranging flights for Israelis residing abroad to return and vote.

One Likud official characterized the operation as "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The argument is that these groups provide the opposition with a support network that operates outside standard party financing rules. However, sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or legal irregularities they cited. Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee, claiming it focused heavily on video restrictions and public resource use while overlooking the nonprofits' activities.

On the ground, Likud is executing a large-scale Election Day operation. The party is focused on preventing right-wing voters from drifting toward smaller slates. In a bid to consolidate the right, Likud attempted to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to exit the race. Winter, a former commander of the Givati Brigade, leads the People of Israel party. Talks involved Rabbi Eli Sadan, who later issued a statement backing Winter, but the effort did not result in his withdrawal.

Likud is also courting supporters of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud. During those talks, the possibility of legislation allowing the party to appoint a deputy minister was raised. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters had not yet decided their candidate.