Israel Votes With No Majority

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday in the first national election since the October 7, 2023 attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza.

The vote follows a period of intense campaigning and a Friday publication ban on polling data. The last surveys before the ban indicated that neither of the two main political blocs would secure the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

A survey by the public broadcaster KAN projected 52 seats for the opposition alliance and 50 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. The remaining seats are expected to go to unaffiliated parties, including the two major Arab lists, Ra’am and the Joint List. Both major blocs have ruled out immediate partnerships with these Arab-led parties, creating uncertainty for coalition formation.

Netanyahu’s coalition centers on his Likud party and includes far-right and ultra-Orthodox groups. United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut form the core of this alliance. The opposition brings together four Jewish-led movements: Yashar, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot; the Democrats, led by former deputy chief of staff Yair Golan; Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman; and the Together alliance, joined by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid.

The election carries high personal stakes for Netanyahu, who has led Israel for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces corruption charges filed in 2019 and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes. A defeat could leave him more exposed in his ongoing trial, which may result in a prison sentence if he is convicted.

Domestic issues drive voter sentiment, with many demanding accountability for security failures before the 2023 attacks. Anger over the ultra-Orthodox military exemption and opposition to Netanyahu’s judicial reforms also shape the debate. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that secular and liberal factions view the vote as the last chance to save Israeli democracy.

International friction adds pressure on the government. Several allies have sanctioned Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and many nations have condemned attacks in Gaza and Lebanon. During the UN General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys walked out of Netanyahu’s address, some booing and jeering.

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polling suggests Arab turnout could reach 60 percent, potentially allowing their parties to win up to 15 seats. The Central Elections Committee initially barred the Joint List and Ra’am last month, but the Supreme Court reversed that decision. The court also removed Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race over an article describing the 2023 attacks as an important historical event.

Netanyahu has portrayed his rivals as likely partners of the Arab parties, claiming only Likud can prevent such an alliance. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, suggested this strategy could keep Netanyahu in office as a caretaker prime minister if no bloc secures a majority. Meanwhile, roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem have no vote in the government that controls their borders and legal status.

The Knesset will count votes and determine the composition of the next government in the coming weeks. The outcome will define whether a stable majority forms or if Israel faces a minority government or a return to the polls.